To impeach or not to impeach?
Anyone who open mindedly reads or reviews the Mueller Report is likeky to conclude that their are strong grounds for impeaching President Trump. Whether it makes sense for Democrats to initiate proceedings is now the crucial question. Given the supine state of the Republican Party, it's probable that short or some very damning evidence being unearthed (not impossible if they ever get hold of his tax returns), the requisite super majority in the Senate is unlikely to be obtained and Nancy Polosi is worried that a failed effort will play into Trump's hands and provide him with a victim narrative that will hand him victory in 2020. Others are comming round to the view that impeachment proceedings are necessary to force the required testimony and evidence to hold the President tp account or that the Democrats habe a moral duty to at least initiate proceedings. So whonis right?
Im not sure what the right thing to do is. But I sure hope the 2020 election will turn things around for the country. 😅😭
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This is about strategy. There have been impeachments of US presidents twice before. None of them were convicted. Therefore the Democrats likely view the possibility of convicting Trump as slim. An impeachment without a conviction is almost certain to strengthen Trump. Instead Democrats put their efforts on winning the next election. So, wrong or right depends on what you think is right. If getting Trump out of the White house as fast as possible is the overarching goal, beating him in the next election probably is a better bet than trying to impeach him.
Best regards, Niklas 🎈
From an outsiders view, it seems like Trump has done enough damage on his own to hinder his bid for re-election. I assume that this is part of their thought process with regard to pressing any charges against him now. Maybe they see it as an unnecessary risk to take at this point?
#3: The problem is that half the population doesn’t agree that he’s done damage. They are behind him no matter what he does.
Best regards, Niklas 🎈
#3 Doesn't the American electoral system mean that a different outcome is likely next election? I'm sure a few heads have turned, hopefully in some of the swing states that Trump was not expecting to win.
#5: No, the system makes it more likely that there is a status quo, statistically speaking. An American president is allowed to stay for two terms (eight years). Trump is on his first term. Sitting presidents usually have an edge over other nominees. People know what they have but not what they will get if they pick someone else.
Best regards, Niklas 🎈
#6 How so? The same thing can happen in the UK (the two term thing), but I wouldn't say they have any particular advantage unless they call an election early, which is rare nowadays.
#7: Including Obama, 16 of 26 presidents running for a second term have been re-elected. To me that suggests sitting presidents have an edge when they get into the presidential race again.
» For U.S. Presidents, Odds for a Second Term Are Surprisingly Long
Best regards, Niklas 🎈
Historically sitting Presidents have indeed had an important advantage. Typically they do not face a fierce and exhausting primary, they are handed a series of wonderful PR opportunities such as visiting the Queen, which it takes considerable incompetence to f up. In Trump's case, the odds look a little against him, but he has been such a brilliant marketer it would be rash to bet against him. Of the leading Dem candidates I would say that Sanders is the one most capable of handing Trump the election. Beto and Booker already seem like busted flushes. Warren has recovered from a shakey start to be a credible performer but somehow seems a bit too Hilary Clinton. Harris looks like great VP material but more suited to a future run. So far Biden seems the safety play, primarily with sheer decency on his side. He seems more cabable of getting out the Black vote that Mayor Pete who has height and name pronounceability against him despite being a younger and brighter contender. I see a Biden/Harris ticket which looks pretty credible. I have a feeling Pence may get dumped if Trump thinks his evangelical vote is secure in favour of someone who might Help him in the battleground States or with some other voter segment. I would not rule him out making a left field choice such as KellyAnn Conway. Sadly it looks like Trump has totally outsmarted Mueller who has just not understood the new system. For me it's of paramount importance that Trump's taxes are revealed as the crimes they will surely reveal seem like his biggest vulnerability.