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2022-02-24, 11:13

Ukraine invasion

A thread to discuss the Russia's recent invasion into Ukraine. What are your thoughts and concerns?

2022-02-24, 12:21

It's weird because right up to this morning there were plenty of people expecting it not to happen. I have been predicting it would start on 23rd Feb for some time now, but had lost my Savvity password/login.

As of around an hour ago, there were still people saying Putin just wanted Donbas. This never made much sense as strategically it gives him very little, but the cost in sanctions will be high.

I don’t think the West has fully taken on board the impact of sanctions on the gas,oil and wheat prices and in terms of cyber disruptions. It’s a hugely scary time.

2022-02-24, 12:33

Yes, the financial market is a mess right now. I heard something on a political podcast I was listening to last week that stuck with me. The journalist was saying that Russia repeatedly had been saying that they were retreating from Ukraine's borders; however, NATO reported that Russia doing the exact opposite. He said that Russia is likely appreciating the fact that they are, for once in a long time, getting more attention from world leaders (several world leaders met in Russia recently) so Russia wants to do what they can keep that attention on them. Also, that Russia is able to play the long game since they don't hold elections like the West does, which preoccupies the West and weakens the West's ability to strategise geopolitically. It was an interesting discussion.

2022-02-25, 02:42

#2: I think it's a mistake to say ”Russia". This is being driven by one man essentially. Putin.

Though the constant barrage of media propaganda has brought along some sympathisers, Im pretty sure that an overwhelming number of Russians habe no interest in this war. The problem is that apart from a few brave ones, they are too scared ti say so in public for fear of being arrested.

2022-02-25, 19:54

Yeah, the journalist was using Putin and Russia interchangeably. I would think most Russians certainly don't want a war to start with Ukraine.

2022-02-28, 16:17

I think I read in The New York Times yesterday that an estimated 8 percent of Russians approve of Putins attack on Ukraine. If true, it’s not a lot of public support. Many Russians live in Ukraine and people in both countries have relatives and friends in the other country.

So far, I think Biden has handled Putin well. Sort of like a hysterical child, going low and slow to let Putin cool down before Biden approaches him.

» Putin Declares a Nuclear Alert, and Biden Seeks De-escalation

Best regards, Niklas 🎈

When the Russian leader ordered his nuclear forces into “special combat readiness,” the U.S. could have gone on high alert. Instead, the administration tried not to inflame him.
2022-02-28, 16:24

I wonder for how long the financial reserves Putin has built for Russia will last. Has he planned for a long conflict and the pressure large parts of the world will put on them?

» The ruble crashes, the stock market closes and Russia’s economy staggers under sanctions

Best regards, Niklas 🎈

The hectic moves were the first signs that Western sanctions were shaking the foundations of Russia’s economy.
2022-03-03, 18:45

I also heard there is only a small amount of Support by Russians for the invasion. I hope it resolves soon and the bloodshed is put to an end.

Did you hear about Putin's indirect threat to Finland and Sweden if they become members of NATO?

I guess it is not the first time he has made these threats, but perhaps they should be taken more seriously given the situation with Ukraine.

2022-03-08, 15:47

#7: No, I saw a headline somewhere about Putin threatening, but whatever happens with NATO’s eventual expansion is on Putin. I probably wouldn’t have thought about Sweden joining NATO until Putin attacked Ukraine. This was the most stupid decision he could make if he was afraid of NATO growing larger.

Best regards, Niklas 🎈

2022-03-08, 16:41
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